Marc Ambinder at the website Five Thirty-Eight (statistician wunderkind Nate Silver's website he founded and edits) wrote a great article about the factors that have historically gone into predicting the winner of the Presidential Election. I urge you all to read the complete article HERE:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/five-things-you-need-to-know-before-predicting-the-2016-election/
Ambinder points out 5 key "known unknowns" that contribute to the general election. These are items that need to be evaluated carefully to see how people are going to vote. With the undecided and unaffiliated voting segment larger than ever before, we know they are the ones that ultimately decide elections. A look at these issues may indicate which way the swing voter will swing:
1. How’s the economy really doing?
2. Is the economy or foreign affairs the voters main concern?
3. Can the Democratic nominee distinguish their base from that of Obama?
4. Who's constituency is more fired up?
5. And who is perceived as the winner & frontrunner?
Ambinder makes some really key points in looking at each of these 5 issues, and as Democrats we can see where we can make a real difference in focusing on the topics and staying enthusiastic, strong, and on topic. Additionally, he makes the point about single-women households being a HUGE factor in swing states like North Carolina.
What this article shows most is that ultimately, at the end of the day,...voters really don't care about the sensationalistic hot-button type of issues. It's all about these 5 "known unknowns" that make a difference in presidential campaigns. How will our party address them and how will we as party members support them and communicate them to our neighbors?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/five-things-you-need-to-know-before-predicting-the-2016-election/
Ambinder points out 5 key "known unknowns" that contribute to the general election. These are items that need to be evaluated carefully to see how people are going to vote. With the undecided and unaffiliated voting segment larger than ever before, we know they are the ones that ultimately decide elections. A look at these issues may indicate which way the swing voter will swing:
1. How’s the economy really doing?
2. Is the economy or foreign affairs the voters main concern?
3. Can the Democratic nominee distinguish their base from that of Obama?
4. Who's constituency is more fired up?
5. And who is perceived as the winner & frontrunner?
Ambinder makes some really key points in looking at each of these 5 issues, and as Democrats we can see where we can make a real difference in focusing on the topics and staying enthusiastic, strong, and on topic. Additionally, he makes the point about single-women households being a HUGE factor in swing states like North Carolina.
What this article shows most is that ultimately, at the end of the day,...voters really don't care about the sensationalistic hot-button type of issues. It's all about these 5 "known unknowns" that make a difference in presidential campaigns. How will our party address them and how will we as party members support them and communicate them to our neighbors?
